German Weekend

[chriscol]

Friday

1.Bundesliga

Frankfurt- Bielefeld: Frankfurt –0.5,-1 @ 2.01
Frankfurt had a perfect start in the year with a big 3-0 win at Berlin. This was mainly due to 3 goals of their new striker Fenin who seems to be a perfect fit and provides them with them much needed goal scorer up front.
This gives the team a whole new perspective and they are talking very confident about that all week.
Bielefeld couldn t have a worse start with a 0-1 home loss to Wolfsburg. They have shown nothing in that game and now travelling to a confident Frankfurt team doesn’t seem the right situation to turn it around. Especially as the lost 6 of last 7 away games (and all by a big margin).Their striker Zuma will be back from Africa-Cup, but maybe still a bit tired.
Historically the last 11 matches at Frankfurt have seen 8 home wins , 2 draws and just one Bielefeld win (3-0 last year). So the whole set up is going in favour of Frankfurt .

2. Bundesliga

St.Pauli- Jena: St.Pauli –0.5 @ 2.05
St.Pauli is a tough home team, especially in night games and living in Hamburg I can tell you it s a tough place to go for any team on a Friday night. They have a confidence boosting 1-1 draw at Köln and welcome several injured players back.
Jena goes the opposite direction. They lost 2-3 at home to Aachen and are missing 2 key players due to injury. Besides their not so strong away record anyway, not a good set up for tonight.

Total for all 3 Friday games: under 8 @1.95

Basically all games are played between lower scoring teams. I dont expect any game go over 3 and there is a very good chance that at least one will end on a 1-0 which should make the under a nice winner.

BOL to all

 

[alfarac]

Really like your input on the Frankfurt game. I knew Bielefield struggled a lot on the road this year so I was leaning towards Frankfurt. But after reading your post I am sure this is the play today. Hope we can cash this one.

GL

 

[TheBrainiac]

I will be banking with Frankfurt too . Good pick in my opinion .

 

[MrCleo]

sure are a lot of us on this boat...

 

[Leafsfan34]

Good luck with your German soccer plays!!!

 

[TheBrainiac]

chris ... what do you think about Fenin to score ? Odds 2.8, he promised the fans to score again today , this guy looks like a good soccer player

 

[chriscol]

to be honest, i dont like this kind of bet. He played his first game and scored a hat trick, but is he a real scoring machine...no idea (i doubt it)...it s difficult enough to pick winning sides in football,why go with a player.
He might score, but most of all he has put some new confidence in the whole team

 

[willer_rookie]

wow, st. pauli are losing with 10 men. I really thought you nailed that bet with Pauli ahead and CZJ down to 10 after 16 minutes...

Still time though...

 

[cut-paste-hero]

chris ... what do you think about Fenin to score ? Odds 2.8, he promised the fans to score again today , this guy looks like a good soccer player

DAMN...

LOOKS LIKE HE SCORED IN THE 47' IF MY SCREEN READS RIGHT... WISH HE SAID HE WOULD SCORE 2...

 

[TheBrainiac]

yep he scored , I only got over 2.5 goals in this game , few plays tomorrow for me just gotta pick out the right ones , will post later . Anything you like in Germany chris ? Besided over 2.5 in Bayern vs Werder maybe ;-)

 

[cut-paste-hero]

THANKS CHRIS FOR THE FRANKFURT...

:money8:

 

[Leafsfan34]

Great call on Frankfurt!!!

:toast:

 

[chriscol]

yep he scored , I only got over 2.5 goals in this game , few plays tomorrow for me just gotta pick out the right ones , will post later . Anything you like in Germany chris ? Besided over 2.5 in Bayern vs Werder maybe ;-)

i will post my plays in the morning and then we go hunting money in Biathlon WC...looking forward to your picks

 

[chriscol]

Leverkusen- Hamburg: under 2.5,3 @ 1.89

Two top teams facing each other here. Leverkusen continued it s solid play from end of last year with a 3-2 win at Cottbus, while Hamburg got a late draw (as expected) at home vs. Hannover. For the side there are conflicting trends here. Leverkusen is the hotter team with Hamburg only getting 3 points from last 4 games and Leverkusen a strong home team. But Hamburg won the last 2 games at Leverkusen and always seems to play good here. Also Leverkusen struggles big time this year against the big teams only getting 1 point from 4 matches.
I like the under much more. Although Leverkusen is usually a over team at home this is mainly due to blow outs against bottom teams, which they can dominate for 90 min. Against the top teams the play close and low scoring games (0-1 Hamburg, 1-1 Schalke, 0-1 München, 2-5 Bremen).
Hamburg plays with a defense first attitude anyway and after the recent struggles in getting results coach Steevens stressed this even more during the week. You can imagine what that means considering that Hamburg played 6 of last 8 with 2 or less goals and the other two games ending 2-1. In addition Hamburg only conceided once in last 11 games more than one goal.
A 1-1 or 1-0 for either team looks very fitting.
From the personal Hamburg is still missing defender Atouba and striker Zidan from Africa Cup. Besides that no big problems on both teams.

Hannover- Karlsruhe: over 2.5 @ 1.91

Hannover were very solid in last week s 1-1 at Hamburg and they are an improving team, which I would normally back at home. But Karlsruhe remains a mystery for me. They continued to produce surprising good results with a 2-0 home win over Nürnberg. Not impressive, but still producing positive results. Pinto is suspended in Hannover s midfield for red-card.
Scared away from the home team due to unpredictable Karlsruhe I like the over here. Karlsruhe usually plays around the number with no big trends, but Hannover has played all home games (besides the first of the season) over the number (4-3,2-3,2-1,2-2,2-1,0-3,3-2). This is actually amazing as they don’t have the reputation, but it s a very strong trend and probably based on a much more offensive (and therefore defensive open) approach at home. If Karlsruhe scores this should be another nice over.


Bochum – Cottbus: Bochum –0.5 @ 1.95 and over 2.5 @1.89 !! 2 units!!

Both teams in midfield right now. Bochum coming off a big 2-1 upset win at Bremen, while Cottbus lost 2-3 at home to Leverkusen after a tough fight.
Bochumis a solid home team especially against teams of similar skill where they get their points in first half of season. Cottbus although no away wins has at least 4 draws and 4 losses and therefore the potential for a strong away showing from time to time. That s the reason to keep it a small play.
The over is a big play as Bochum has always scoring on both sides. 7 of 8 home games went over the number (and most by a lot) and in all, but one of those games both teams got on the board. This is always the perfect set up I am looking for when taking overs.
Cottbus plays pretty even at this number, but with has shown some offensive potential lately scoring 7 goals in last 2 games (but also big defensive lapses as against Leverkusen).
Epale ismissing for Bochum due to Africa Cup.

Wolfsburg- Duisburg: Wolfsburg –1 @ 2.04
Wolfsburg on a up trend as said last week. That was backed by their 1-0 away win at Bielefeld. Duisburg sitting in last place at a disappointing 3-3 draw to Dortmund where they gave a 3-1 lead away in injury time. I expect this to be an emotional break for them as it could have given a kick start to some hopes of staying in league after the winter break. But playing a solid game and only getting a draw this way cannot be a confident booster.
Filipsen and Avales are out injured.
I would go with Wolfsburg much stronger , but although I am confident they will win straight up, they have problems putting teams away at home. So –1 is a must play in the overall set up, but it could be very well a push.

BOL to all

 

[jwunderdog]

:money8:

THanks, I didn't follow you in the fall, but nice start to the new year.

 

[chriscol]

great saturday..almost the sweep,if not for Bochum giving a 3-1 lead away

Sunday

2. Bundesliga
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Paderborn- Freiburg : over 2,2.5 @ 1.93 !!2 units!!
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Freiburg one of the top teams, but off to a disappointing start with a home draw to lowly Osnabrück and overall winless in last 6 matches (although 5 draws). They are missing Bercik and striker Idrissou due to suspension.<o></o>
Paderborn sitting in dead last place lost last week at Offenbach 1-2. As a reaction they fired their coach on Friday and the new coach is Dochev who is actually coming from Erfurt a team which is currently in 2<SUP>nd</SUP> place in Regionalliga.<o></o>
Paderborn has a special situation regarding totals: although they are in last place in the standings with only 1 win they are the 3<SUP>rd</SUP> best defense in the whole league with a goal differnce of 11-21 from 18 games. I think that s never heard of and an unusual trend which I expect to change in future (just to get to normal levels). So either they will start scoring and producing much better results in 2<SUP>nd</SUP> half of season (because the defense is rock solid) or they will go down heavily even because the lack of offense.<o></o>
I said already last week that I am not playing Paderborn unders anymore for now as this might change and it was already an over (1-2).<o></o>
Now there is a special extra to it. A new coach. And Dochev was known in Erfurt for a very offensive style leading to Erfurt being the highest overall scoring team in Regionalliga. There were 64 goals in 20 Erfurt matches.<o></o>
If this at least somehow goes into Paderborn s tactics (and they have to start opening up a bit more anyway regarding their current standings) this will lead to some nice overs in 2<SUP>nd</SUP> half of season.<o></o>
Regarding Freiburg s totals: although not an over team, they are definitely a solid offensive team and struggle to keep teams of the board. There was only one of last 8 games were not both teams scored at least once. Although having a few 1-1 draws in the span only 1 in last 12 games did not reach at least two goals total.<o></o>
This is looking like a nice 2-1 or 1-2 game for me.<o></o>
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Hoffenheim- Gladbach: over 2.5 @ 1.91
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Hoffenheim is getting closer to the promotion zone with last week s away win, but they are a terrible home team (3rd worse record in league). They are on a uptrend, but lost key player Salihovic during the week to a major injury. This could be a big blow and I am not sure how they react.<o></o>
Gladbach the league leader is struggeling lately as seen in last week s 1-1 draw to bottom team Kaiserslautern. They are only 2-4-0 in last 6 games. Main problem are injuries. They are missing 6 players including now two players with suspension. Also key midfield player Ndjang has the flu and is questionable for tomorrow s match. Only good news is that striker Neuville will be back from injury.<o></o>
With so many uncertainties the side is a no bet, but the over is almost a must with these two teams. Hoffenheim played 2-2,2-2,4-1,2-0 in last four…scoring a lot , but not defending well. Gladbach is th ebest offensive team in league anyway. I expect both teams to score in a tight match and that should hopefully bring the over<o></o>
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Osnabrück- Wehen: Osnabrück pk,-0.5 @1.87
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Two team just above the relegation zone but on different trend. Osnabrück coming of a big draw at Freiburg as it s strength in defense back with the return from Cichon. That was shown already last week. They are unbeaten at home all season, so a tough place to get points.<o></o>
Wehen has started with a home loss to Hoffenheim. They have not won now in 10 games going 0-7-3 . The only thing not making this a big play is the tendency from Wehen to play draws, but a win is highly unlikely here.


1.Bundesliga
München- Bremen: München –0.5,-1 @1.96

Tough game to pick between the two top teams in Germany.Bremen has a solid history playing at München so they re definitely not afraid to go there.But they have a very disappointing start this year with a cup loss and the home loss to Bochum. This puts them under big pressure. All the talk this week is about being potentially 6 points behind München if they loose. There injury/suspension problems not getting better. Beside Frings, they are also missing striker Sanogo (Africa Cup) and Naldo and Almeda with red card. Borowski might be back from injury.They are also not very solid in away games this season.München meanwhile seems to be a bit more focused starting the year with a cup win and a solid 2-1 win at Rostock. Schweinsteiger and Lucio will be back from injury, but Ribery is out in midfield which is a big blow and might give them struggles in creativity creating scoring chances (therefore no over, which would be the obvious play otherwise).Besides Ribery everything points to a home win.

Dortmund- Schalke: no play (info only)

It s the biggest derby in german football. This is the biggest game for both teams in whole season (almost bigger then the whole season). It s always a possibility for the overall struggling team to make good everything else they did as it happened last year when Dortmund won 2-0 on match day 33 to destroy Schalke s title dreams.History is for what reason ever on Schalke s side as they have only 1 loss (last season) in last 7 games at Dortmund. Also they are in better form coming off a 4-1 win over Stuttgart while Dortmund just got a lucky 3-3 at Duisburg.But the fact that Dortmund has overall a disappointing season and can stop Schalkes way to the top with a win overshadows all stats in this derby.Schalkes top striker Kuranyi is out with suspension which is big loss for them and makes this game even more open.

BOL to all<o></o>

 

[chriscol]

both overs already in after 55 min...2-1 gladbach,2-1 PAderborn.
now come on Osnabrück for the sweep :aktion033